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A positive number can be expected only in the next financial year. The government has made it very clear that states can consider local measures but they cannot stop inter and intra state movements. They also cannot impose any kind of a lockdown, a local lockdown. How effective would these measures be to contain the spread of Covid-19 and to ensure that business activity continues? Rural India is doing relatively better, agriculture is doing well and that is a very significant buffer in a year like this. In fact, in Q2 we are seeing the effect of the summer crop. In the case of Q3, we will possibly see the effect of both the summer crop and the winter crop and winter crop sowing at this moment is very strong, a 20% plus uptick from the previous year’s level winter crop. Also, some of the other sectors keep on providing some bit of support as in the case of construction etc. Having said that, some of the big elephants in the room are really the financial sector which is still into significant negative and we need to see how exactly that plays out over the course of the next couple of quarters. There is every possibility that Q1 of the next financial year onwards, the numbers will all of a sudden start looking a lot better because there is a very significant statistical effect etc but at this moment original site we will be fighting a not so unfavourable base but at the same time some kind of uneven recovery, both in terms of regional aspects as well as sectoral aspects off and on over the next two quarters.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/a-positive-gdp-number-can-be-expected-only-in-next-financial-year/articleshow/79449560.cms

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